A base case is optimism with a spreadsheet. Institutional underwriting earns its keep in the downside — the scenarios that show whether a deal survives a worse world.
The usual stresses
Rent growth 150–200 bps below base — does the thesis still hold if rents disappoint?
Cap-rate expansion (e.g., +100 bps) — what happens to the exit value if the market re-prices?
Higher debt cost (+150 bps) — can the deal carry more expensive money?
Vacancy +500 bps — how much slack is in the income?
The point. Run the downside scenarios in parallel and you learn which one or two variables actually decide the deal — so you can underwrite those hardest. AI makes parallel scenarios cheap; judgment makes them useful.
Not advice. General educational and operational information — not legal, accounting, tax, or investment advice. George Howell Ward is not a CPA or registered investment adviser and provides no IRS Circular 230 services. Consult a licensed professional in your jurisdiction.